Commodity market & national bank reserves - part.1

Over the past two weeks, central banks have continued to bolster their gold reserves, signaling a strategic shift amid global economic uncertainties. The United Arab Emirates, for instance, reported a 26% increase in its gold holdings, reflecting robust banking sector growth and a proactive approach to financial stability . Conversely, India's gold reserves saw a slight dip, despite an overall rise in foreign exchange reserves, indicating a nuanced approach to reserve management . This trend aligns with findings from the World Gold Council's 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which noted a decline in gold demand, with forecasts suggesting 2025 purchases may fall below 1,000 tonnes, raising concerns about changing sentiment .

In the platinum market, the past fortnight has seen continued upward momentum in prices, driven by persistent supply deficits and increasing demand. Analysts forecast a platinum deficit of approximately 848,000 ounces for 2025, marking the third consecutive year of undersupply . This is compounded by disruptions and mine closures, particularly in Russia, leading to a projected decline in global platinum production . The gold-to-platinum price ratio reached 3.5x in May 2025, its highest level since 2015, prompting some Chinese fabricators to switch to platinum .

These developments underscore a broader restructuring in the precious metals market, with central banks reassessing their reserve strategies and market participants navigating the evolving dynamics of supply and demand. The interplay between geopolitical factors, economic policies, and market fundamentals continues to shape the landscape for both gold and platinum, influencing investment decisions and market outlooks.